Preseason Rankings
Sacramento St.
Big Sky
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-4.4#230
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace60.4#336
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.6#299
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#161
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.6% 5.4% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 40.9% 46.3% 17.9%
.500 or above in Conference 52.5% 58.6% 26.3%
Conference Champion 5.5% 6.4% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 4.2% 21.4%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round4.6% 5.3% 1.3%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho (Home) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 48 - 411 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 03, 2020 322   Idaho W 70-60 81%    
  Dec 05, 2020 322   Idaho W 70-60 80%    
  Dec 12, 2020 125   @ Santa Clara L 64-74 19%    
  Dec 19, 2020 204   UC Davis W 66-64 55%    
  Dec 21, 2020 31   @ Stanford L 54-73 5%    
  Dec 30, 2020 74   @ St. Mary's L 55-70 9%    
  Jan 07, 2021 252   Portland St. W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 09, 2021 252   @ Portland St. L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 14, 2021 299   @ Idaho St. W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 16, 2021 299   @ Idaho St. W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 21, 2021 140   Montana L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 23, 2021 140   Montana L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 28, 2021 132   @ Eastern Washington L 66-75 22%    
  Jan 30, 2021 132   @ Eastern Washington L 66-75 22%    
  Feb 04, 2021 266   Northern Arizona W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 06, 2021 266   Northern Arizona W 67-62 66%    
  Feb 11, 2021 166   @ Northern Colorado L 59-66 28%    
  Feb 13, 2021 166   Northern Colorado L 62-63 47%    
  Feb 18, 2021 192   @ Southern Utah L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 20, 2021 192   @ Southern Utah L 63-68 33%    
  Feb 25, 2021 256   Weber St. W 66-62 64%    
  Feb 27, 2021 256   Weber St. W 66-62 64%    
  Mar 04, 2021 209   @ Montana St. L 62-66 36%    
  Mar 06, 2021 209   @ Montana St. L 62-66 36%    
Projected Record 11 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 5.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 3.4 4.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.7 1.7 0.3 0.0 11.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.9 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.0 4.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 11.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.9 3.5 1.1 0.1 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 6.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.1 5.0 7.0 8.6 9.8 10.5 11.0 10.5 8.9 7.3 5.8 3.9 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 99.7% 0.7    0.6 0.1
17-3 80.3% 1.1    0.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 58.3% 1.6    0.9 0.6 0.1
15-5 29.4% 1.1    0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 9.1% 0.5    0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.5% 5.5 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 100.0% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.7% 97.1% 97.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
17-3 1.4% 75.2% 75.2% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.4
16-4 2.8% 50.6% 50.6% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.4
15-5 3.9% 20.8% 20.8% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 3.1
14-6 5.8% 6.2% 6.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 5.5
13-7 7.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.3
12-8 8.9% 8.9
11-9 10.5% 10.5
10-10 11.0% 11.0
9-11 10.5% 10.5
8-12 9.8% 9.8
7-13 8.6% 8.6
6-14 7.0% 7.0
5-15 5.0% 5.0
4-16 3.1% 3.1
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.6 95.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%